Presidential polling update

 If a week is a long time in politics, then 21 months must seem like an eternity.  That is how long we have to wait until we know the identity of the next President of the United States, while in just under a year we will know who the Democratic and Republican candidates are.  So are opinion polls worth tracking at this early stage? 

Yes, in my opinion.  They will not tell us who will win or by how much, but they may just reveal which candidates we can take seriously, and which ones we can dismiss as peripheral.  Equally, the ‘head-to-heads’, such as Hillary vs. Rudy, or Obama vs. McCain provide a good insight into which opponent’s candidates should fear. 

The key figures in the Democratic race so far are Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards, with the undeclared Al Gore also in the reckoning.  For the Republicans the two runaway leaders are John McCain and Rudy Giuliani, while Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich cannot be dismissed. 

So far, Giuliani remains the man to beat, comfortably taking care of his Republican rival John McCain and the Democrat’s top brass.  With McCain also being more popular than Clinton, Obama and Edwards, the Republicans, perhaps surprisingly, have the early advantage.

Check back here for regular polling updates.

Anton Muszanskyj

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